Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.063406 10.425884 11.900558 13.612343 15.541648 17.645716 20.110937
2025-04-20 7.210214 9.076874 11.260167 13.990203 17.299348 21.166640 26.013448
2025-04-27 6.238769 8.323105 10.884641 14.241128 18.497485 23.686859 30.461052
2025-05-04 5.357929 7.536688 10.337117 14.164115 19.215748 25.608516 34.255595
2025-05-11 4.638051 6.838316 9.780685 13.952295 19.653787 27.103898 37.491698
2025-05-18 4.133461 6.361320 9.449536 13.975169 20.355544 28.932750 41.215753
2025-05-25 3.759646 6.018528 9.254286 14.140678 21.225142 30.993980 45.320058
2025-06-01 3.393192 5.641527 8.964960 14.129016 21.816431 32.672465 48.950179
2025-06-08 3.046616 5.254554 8.618655 13.990771 22.191570 34.036977 52.173391
2025-06-15 2.807030 5.008926 8.459027 14.108516 22.932992 35.943175 56.242949
2025-06-22 2.661265 4.899410 8.497119 14.524218 24.135861 38.570224 61.476597
2025-06-29 2.411321 4.588583 8.184155 14.353629 24.407810 39.798867 64.655281
2025-07-06 2.074943 4.098464 7.542855 13.612875 23.745555 39.588280 65.671686
2025-07-13 1.961351 3.994783 7.542964 13.933422 24.810765 42.110336 71.036379
2025-07-20 1.850770 3.884035 7.518447 14.203330 25.796998 44.539610 76.344907
2025-07-27 1.696859 3.675026 7.301466 14.119727 26.177119 46.001750 80.159508
2025-08-03 1.541158 3.445776 7.027321 13.910788 26.321823 47.073069 83.369853
2025-08-10 1.431359 3.296734 6.888344 13.932818 26.862813 48.816664 87.748834
2025-08-17 1.349041 3.195573 6.830886 14.098148 27.661055 51.021072 92.978521
2025-08-24 1.253108 3.055517 6.686018 14.086425 28.134131 52.682778 97.347899
2025-08-31 1.152076 2.893553 6.483952 13.948585 28.362975 53.922752 101.033398
2025-09-07 1.085971 2.802235 6.416389 14.066001 29.067539 56.019715 106.276398
2025-09-14 1.053166 2.783633 6.496684 14.480586 30.351716 59.195880 113.528574